Digitopoly
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Amara's Law
If you hang out with technologists, you have heard Amara's law. Humans tend to overestimate the short-run effect of technology and underestimate its long-run effect. Decades of experience inform this bit of wisdom. Roy Amara worked as a policy analyst at
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Frontier Pick and Shovel Markets
A firm in a "pick and shovel" market produces a good or service that serves as an input to other businesses. A "frontier" pick-and-shovel supplier has made a significant technical breakthrough in applied science or engineering that has enabled capabilitie
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The Digital Year in Review: 2025
It is time to look back at digital technology in 2025 and make light of it. This review will be arranged much like the Oscars, with awards in various categories. Just as in past years, there are three criteria for the dozen awards this year: The award mus
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Private Returns on Technology Adoption
From a firm's perspective, the emergence of a new technology wave is a new opportunity to generate a financial return. The question is precisely how. That topic remains as salient today, in the era of artificial intelligence, as it was when firms first en
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Artificial Intelligence and the Jevons Paradox
What can a nineteenth-century economist teach a twenty-first-century Chief Executive Officer (CEO) at one of the largest technology firms? More to the point, why is Microsoft's CEO, Satya Nadella, quoting William Stanley Jevons? Jevons was a dominant figu
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