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Rep. Thomas Kean Jr. of New Jersey's 7th Congressional District returns to the Capitol after a nearly four-month absence from Congress, which he attributed to treatment for depression. His district represents one of Democrats' best pickup opportunities. A

Our latest midterm forecastUpdated August 22, 2026Today, we're out with a tour of the 48 key House races. Check it out to learn where in the country Democrats stand to gain the most ground, and where they might have more trouble. Spoiler: mid-decade redis

The latest on Trump's approval ratingUpdated August 21, 2026The Silver Bulletin 2026 midterm election forecast launched today! Check out the new landing page to see our predictions for every Senate, House and gubernatorial race this cycle.The forecast doe

The latest on the generic ballotUpdated August 21, 2026The Silver Bulletin 2026 midterm election forecast launched today! Check out the new landing page to see our predictions for every Senate, House and gubernatorial race this cycle.We also post a slight

The latest on the Iran War's popularityUpdated August 21, 2026The Silver Bulletin 2026 midterm election forecast launched today! Check out the new landing page to see our predictions for every Senate, House and gubernatorial race this cycle.The Iran War's

Josh Turek, the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa, enjoying a tasty beverage while speaking with a voter at the Iowa State Fair on Aug. 14. Scott Olson/Getty Images.Two years ago on this date, we were still in the waning days of Brat Summer. Kamala Ha

One of my philosophies for this newsletter is to write about the things that I'm thinking about anyway. But there's long been a deficiency when it comes to our coverage of AI, which occupies more and more of my headspace even though we only write about it

In case you missed it, we launched our 2026 election forecast - now named FLIPR - on Tuesday. On balance, the model is bullish on Democrats' chances in November. But while it currently rates the House as "likely D", the Senate is still in true tossup terr

This wasn't intended as a full newsletter today, as we're recovering from some very long nights in getting FLIPR ready. But I wound up with a little bit of a longer take on prediction markets, as you… Read more

The latest on Musk's favorability ratingUpdated August 12, 2026Over that time, the number of polls asking about Musk has decreased dramatically. As a result, we'll be updating this average less frequently going forward. Instead of updating every day, we'l