Secondthoughts

AI progress is racing along, but virtually all of the visible progress is in the realm of knowledge work, i.e. activities that can take place inside a computer.In the San Francisco AI scene, there is a widespread belief that robots will soon enter the pic

Our plausible cyber future, if we don't make some changesWe have a cybersecurity problem. You might have heard.It's even worse than the occasional headlines suggest. Hacking incidents are routine - regarded like car crashes, not airplane crashes. When you

In the first two installments of this "state of AI" series, I reviewed the pace of change and the factors driving that change. Today's installment reviews AI's present-day impact.In the first two installments of this "state of AI" series, I reviewed the p

This is a repost of one of my favorite essays, which I originally published back in 2022. It's as relevant to AI as it was to the topics I was focusing on back then, as I explain in a new section at the end.)My topic for today: All numbers are wrong.Like,

Attention all progress-minded aspiring bloggers: The Roots of Progress Institute is accepting applications for its annual blog-building fellowship. I Steve participated in this program in 2024 and highly recommend it! Over 10 part-time weeks, you'll get i

In the first installment of this "state of AI" series, I reviewed the pace of change. In this installment, I'll review the factors driving that change. Understanding the forces behind AI progress can help us understand where things will go from here.A pun

A quick aside: I was recently interviewed on The Cognitive Revolution. In the first half, I discuss the suite of tools I've had Claude Code build to improve my personal productivity. In the second half, host Nathan Labenz and I get into a broader discussi

This is the second installment in a series examining the potential for AI to lower the bar to creation and use of bioweapons, written by Golden Gate Institute for AI's Abi Olvera. Part one explains why bioweapons are difficult to create and rarely used. T

We talk about "AI capabilities" as if there are things AI can do, and things it can't. But there's a huge messy middle, where outcomes depend on patience, skill, and luck. ChatGPT might generate a sound analysis if prompted one way, but reflect the user's

When people discuss potential risks from advanced AI, the list usually includes bioweapons. The idea is that a rogue actor, or possibly a misaligned AI, might use AI tools to help synthesize and release anything from anthrax to a civilization-ending super