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Making sense of the global economy and financial markets. Click to read The Overshoot, by Matthew C. Klein, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.
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AI, Productivity, and Rates: Part 2
It is possible that we are on the cusp of a productivity boom.1As it happens, the last one started almost exactly thirty years ago and ran for about eight years. During that time, the real value of goods and services produced in an average hour of work ro
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AI, Productivity, and Rates: Part I
Two videos you may be interested in from my recent trip to Dalian: a panel discussion I did on "Resisting Autarky", and a free-wheeling conversation I had with Nikhil Kamath and Zhu Ning.According to the Federal Reserve's latest policy statement, "product
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U.S. Inflation Is Not Really Slowing
It is perhaps fitting that the official consumer and producer inflation numbers for June, which were flattered by the 9.5% decline in the prices of consumer energy goods, were published just after the U.S. officially restarted its war with Iran. To the ex
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The Win-Win Solution to "China Shock 2.0"
I will be in Dalian on June 23-25 for the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting of the New Champions. I will be giving a short presentation on "A World Out of Balance" on June 23 at 10:00 local time, which I believe can be viewed online at this link. If y
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The Case for Higher U.S. Rates
Among other reasons, Kevin Warsh was nominated to run the Federal Reserve because of his insistence that software innovations will lower prices so much that the central bank will need to preemptively lower interest rates just to keep the economy out of a
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