Modelling / Forecasting Senior Analyst (Quants)

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Pay Details:

TD is committed to providing fair and equitable compensation opportunities to all colleagues. Growth opportunities and skill development are defining features of the colleague experience at TD. Our compensation policies and practices have been designed to allow colleagues to progress through the salary range over time as they progress in their role. The base pay actually offered may vary based upon the candidate's skills and experience, job-related knowledge, geographic location, and other specific business and organizational needs.

As a candidate, you are encouraged to ask compensation related questions and have an open dialogue with your recruiter who can provide you more specific details for this role.

Job Description:

Department Overview

The Non-Retail Model Development (NRMD) group is part of the Model Development department within Corporate Transformation and Operations. It is responsible for methodology development related to credit risk and operational risk in non-retail Wholesale and Commercial businesses. These methodologies cover Basel III credit parameters, including PD, LGD, and EAD/UGD, regulatory and economic capital for AIRB credit risk, IFRS 9 allowances, and Risk Ratings. Model Development is responsible for developing mathematical methodologies, building software prototypes, and working closely with other functions throughout the bank to implement system solutions.

Within this mandate, the U.S. Non-Retail Model Development team focuses on developing, enhancing, and implementing credit risk methodologies for U.S. Commercial portfolios, including Point-in-Time risk parameter models, CECL/IFRS 9 allowance methodologies, and stress testing / forecasting frameworks. The team partners closely with Risk, Finance, Technology, Model Validation, and Governance stakeholders to deliver robust, forward-looking credit risk solutions that support business decision-making, regulatory requirements, and risk management objectives.

Role Overview

The position is in the U.S. Non-Retail Model Development group.

As a Senior Quantitative Analytics Analyst, you will contribute to the development, enhancement, monitoring, and implementation of credit risk parameter models and stress testing / forecasting methodologies for U.S. Commercial portfolios. The role supports Point-in-Time PD, LGD, and EAD models, CECL/IFRS 9 allowance methodologies, and scenario-based forecasting frameworks. You will work with complex commercial credit datasets, evaluate model performance and limitations, develop scalable analytical tools, and help translate quantitative insights into clear documentation and stakeholder-ready recommendations.

This position provides excellent learning and career opportunities in a highly professional and motivated team environment, with exposure to high-impact U.S. Commercial portfolio modeling initiatives, senior stakeholders, evolving regulatory expectations, and opportunities to develop deep expertise in credit risk model development, forecasting methodologies, advanced analytics, and modern modeling technologies.

Detailed Responsibilities

• Support the design, development, enhancement, testing, implementation, and monitoring of Point-in-Time PD, LGD, and EAD models, CECL/IFRS 9 allowance methodologies, and stress testing / forecasting models for U.S. Commercial portfolios.
• Develop and enhance credit risk stress testing and forecasting methodologies, including scenario analysis, macroeconomic driver assessment, sensitivity testing, attribution analysis, and impact assessment.
• Conduct quantitative analysis to support model development activities, including data preparation, segmentation, feature construction, variable assessment, model estimation, calibration, benchmarking, sensitivity analysis, back-testing, attribution analysis, and impact assessment.
• Build, maintain, and improve reusable analytical tools, scalable code-based workflows, and reporting capabilities to support model development, testing, monitoring, documentation, and implementation activities.
• Analyze portfolio characteristics and modeling challenges associated with U.S. Commercial portfolios, including data limitations, portfolio heterogeneity, obligor concentration, economic cyclicality, low-default behavior, and expert judgment considerations where applicable.
• Assess model performance through monitoring, diagnostics, sensitivity testing, back-testing, and evaluation of emerging risk drivers, and recommend enhancements where appropriate.
• Prepare clear and well-structured model documentation, technical analyses, presentations, and supporting materials that explain methodology, assumptions, limitations, results, and business implications to both technical and non-technical audiences.
• Support compliance with TD Model Risk Management standards, relevant regulatory expectations, and Data Governance requirements, including documentation of assumptions, limitations, controls, model performance metrics, and data quality considerations.
• Contribute to model enhancements, redevelopment activities, and new model development initiatives, while identifying opportunities to improve methodologies, analytical processes, documentation standards, and recurring reporting workflows through automation and scalable solutions.
• Partner with stakeholders across Risk, Finance, Technology, Governance, Model Validation, and Business teams to support model development, review, implementation, issue remediation, and ongoing model use.
• Evaluate and recommend enhancements to legacy methodologies, processes, and analytical approaches while balancing model performance, interpretability, governance requirements, and implementation considerations.
• Contribute to research and controlled experimentation involving advanced analytics, machine learning, and AI-enabled tools where appropriate, while considering explainability, documentation, governance, and model risk requirements.

Job Requirements

• Graduate degree in Statistics, Mathematics, Financial Engineering, Economics, Data Science, Computer Science, or another quantitative discipline.
• Experience or strong academic exposure in credit risk modeling, loss forecasting, econometric modeling, statistical modeling, or related quantitative analysis.
• Knowledge of credit risk parameters and frameworks, including PD, LGD, EAD, CECL/IFRS 9, stress testing / forecasting, and Basel capital concepts.
• Strong programming and data analysis skills, preferably in Python and SQL; experience with SAS, R, MATLAB, or similar tools is an asset.
• Experience working with complex datasets and applying quantitative methods to support model development, testing, monitoring, or reporting.
• Strong analytical, problem-solving, written communication, and verbal communication skills.
• Demonstrated initiative, attention to detail, and ability to deliver high-quality analytical work within defined timelines.
• Familiarity with model risk management, data governance, automation, machine learning, or AI-enabled productivity tools is an asset.

Differentiating Capabilities / Preferred Experience

• Demonstrated ownership mindset, curiosity, and ability to independently progress assigned analytical workstreams in complex or ambiguous environments.
• Experience improving analytical workflows through automation, reusable code, standardized templates, or scalable reporting solutions.
• Exposure to machine learning, advanced analytics, or AI-enabled tools, with practical understanding of explainability, documentation, governance, and model risk considerations.
• Ability to identify model, data, process, or documentation gaps and recommend practical enhancements.
• Strong communication skills with ability to translate quantitative analysis into actionable insights, limitations, and recommendations.
• Willingness to constructively challenge legacy approaches and contribute to innovative, controlled, and regulator-friendly model development practices.

Who We Are:

TD is one of the world's leading global financial institutions and is the fifth largest bank in North America by branches/stores. Every day, we strive to make every interaction, product, and experience remarkably human and refreshingly simple for over 27 million households and businesses in Canada, the United States and around the world. More than 95,000 TD colleagues bring their skills, talent, and creativity to foster deeper relationships, ensure disciplined execution, and build a simpler, faster banking experience. TD is deeply committed to being a leader in client experience, that is why we believe that all colleagues, no matter where they work, are client facing. Together, we are reimagining what banking can be for our clients, colleagues and communities.

Our Total Rewards Package

Our Total Rewards package reflects the investments we make in our colleagues to help them and their families achieve their financial, physical, and mental well-being goals. Total Rewards at TD includes a base salary, variable compensation, and several other key plans such as health and well-being benefits, savings and retirement programs, paid time off, banking benefits and discounts, career development, and reward and recognition programs. Learn more

Additional Information:

We’re delighted that you’re considering building a career with TD. Through regular development conversations, training programs, and a competitive benefits plan, we’re committed to providing the support our colleagues need to thrive both at work and at home.

Please be advised that this job opportunity is subject to provincial regulation for employment purposes. It is imperative to acknowledge that each province or territory within the jurisdiction of Canada may have its own set of regulations, requirements.

Colleague Development

If you’re interested in a specific career path or are looking to build certain skills, we want to help you succeed. You’ll have regular career, development, and performance conversations with your manager, as well as access to an online learning platform and a variety of mentoring programs to help you unlock future opportunities.

If you’re passionate about helping clients and building deep, lasting relationships, TD offers diverse career paths where you can grow your expertise and make a meaningful impact.

We're committed to your success and foster a respectful workplace where diverse perspectives are valued, everyone has fair opportunities to grow, and you can unlock your full potential to achieve your career goals. Here at TD, we hire and develop the best.

Training & Onboarding

We will provide training and onboarding sessions to ensure that you’ve got everything you need to succeed in your new role.

Interview Process

We’ll reach out to candidates of interest to schedule an interview. We do our best to communicate outcomes to all applicants by email or phone call.

Accommodation

Your accessibility is important to us. Please let us know if you’d like accommodations (including accessible meeting rooms, captioning for virtual interviews, etc.) to help us remove barriers so that you can participate throughout the interview process.

We look forward to hearing from you!

Language Requirement (Quebec only):