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Busting the AI Youth Unemployment Myth
The first chart below compares the unemployment rate for the entire US population with the unemployment rate for people ages...
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Sentiment Destruction, Not Demand Destruction
Daily data are starting to show a significant deterioration in inflation expectations and consumer sentiment across the income distribution, see...
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One Factor Driving All Returns
AI is driving returns in equity markets because of the growing size of tech in the S&P 500 index, and...
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No Signs of AI Replacing Offshore Workers
We are monitoring the unemployment rate in the Philippines and India for any signs that AI is reducing the need...
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37% of Household Financial Wealth in Germany Is in Bank Deposits
The share of financial wealth in bank deposits is 51% in Japan, 37% in Germany and 11% in the United...
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S&P 500 Concentration Approaching 50%
The 10 biggest companies in the S&P 500 make up almost 40% of the index, and if Anthropic, OpenAI and...
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Software Maturity Wall
Software faces a massive $40 billion maturity wall in 2028, dominated by lower-rated B- credits, exposing the sector to refinancing...
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K-Shaped Expansion Continues
Consumer spending data from the New York Fed shows a clear K-shaped pattern where growth has been faster for high-income...
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New Business Formation Exploding Higher
The surge in new US business formation is being fueled by AI and large language models that are dramatically reducing...
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Confusing AI with Fed Hikes
Economic research institutions have identified sectors and occupations that are likely to be vulnerable to AI, see for example here,...
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