Tomasz Tunguz
tomtunguz.com
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Venture capitalInvestments
1
0 of them startups
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companies with open roles
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1
Focusshare of its companies
AI Agents 100%AI Development Tools 100%
Where its companies are
United States 100%
Stage of its companies
Venture, series not stated 100%
Its companies, the freshest money firstAll 1 investments
Sources: 1 rounds in the press that name it
News
Most AI Work Can Wait
Prioritize routing over model choice. Most AI work runs on cheap local models.
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When AI Costs More Than the Engineer
Anthropic spends 2.3x payroll on compute. Top software firms spend 0.4x. Three scenarios for where the rest of the market lands by 2029.
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The Golden Age of AI Applications
Three weekend developments - the Fable retraction, Satya's ecosystem thesis & Salesforce's $3.6B Fin acquisition - reveal why the moat has shifted from models to harnesses.
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Intelligence Per Dollar
Microsoft's MAI-Code-1-Flash matches Claude Haiku 4.5 on SWE-Bench Verified using a third of the tokens. The right metric for AI in production is intelligence per dollar, value per token spent.
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The AI Skepticism Map
Short interest in public AI stocks has risen modestly overall, but the pressure is concentrated in AI cloud and smaller software names.
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Skill Distillation
How a personal AI agent built on markdown skills lets a frontier model teach smaller, local models to do real work, without retraining.
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The Unsustainable Subsidy
Three years of LLM pricing data: flagship prices dropped, then flipped upward, while budget models bounced back. Tokenizer efficiency softened the headline, but real costs are rising.
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Localmaxxing
About half of agent tasks can run on a local 35B model. The real advantage isn't cost or privacy - it's latency. 2.1x faster means more iteration cycles per session.
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AI at Discount
Anthropic trades at 17x EV/NTM on 165% growth, a 65% discount to Palantir. Capital intensity, profitability uncertainty & growth volatility explain the gap.
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Optimizing Software Factories
As engineering teams shrink and AI agents multiply, key-person risk becomes existential. The ratio you choose determines your team's shape and its fragility.
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