Toby Ord
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Overview
Toby Ord. Toby Ord is a Senior Researcher at Oxford University's AI Governance Initiative. His work focuses on the big picture questions facing humanity. What are the most important issues of our time? How can we best address them?
News
Are the Costs of AI Agents Also Rising Exponentially?
There is an extremely important question about the near-future of AI that almost no-one is asking. We've all seen the graphs from METR showing that the length of tasks AI agents can perform has been growing exponentially over the last 7 years. While GPT-2
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Report
How Well Does RL Scale?
The current era of improving AI capabilities using Reinforcement Learning (from verifiable rewards) involves two key types of scaling: Scaling the amount of compute used for RL during training Scaling the amount of compute used for inference during deploy
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Report
The Extreme Inefficiency of RL for Frontier Models
The new scaling paradigm for AI reduces the amount of information a model could learn per hour of training by a factor of 1,000 to 1,000,000. I explore what this means and its implications for scaling.
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Report
Is there a Half-Life for the Success Rates of AI Agents?
Building on the recent empirical work of Kwa et al. (2025), I show that within their suite of research-engineering tasks the performance of AI agents on longer-duration tasks can be explained by an extremely simple mathematical model - a constant rate of
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Report
Inference Scaling Reshapes AI Governance
The shift from scaling up the pre-training compute of AI systems to scaling up their inference compute may have profound effects on AI governance. The nature of these effects depends crucially on whether this new inference compute will primarily be used d
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