Win Vector LLC
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Overview
Advising, Consulting, Training About Win Vector LLC Win Vector LLC is a San Francisco based company specializing in data science. We work in a variety of industries, with organizations both large and small. Our Win Vector blog is followed by data scientists worldwide.
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Expected Log-Return as a Risk Control
The question Here is a betting/investment puzzle to help introduce some tools for reasoning about risk. You are offered a bet or risky investment that returns or pays-off X dollars for every dollar laid in, where X is a random variable distributed log-nor
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Choose by Probability, not by Expectation
A lot of financial thinking and intuition attempts to phrase decisions and choices in terms of claimed returns or in terms of expected values. For example: An ultra greedy gambler may pick the highest claimed winning payoff, independent of win or success
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LLMs Will Benefit from Scratch Workspaces
Current (mid-2026) LLMs are quite powerful. However, (prior to addition of agent harnesses and loops) LLMs vendors don't claim to include an effective scratch workspace. Current LLM designs, to the extent we know what they are, remain extensions of the at
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Maybe Jacobian Conjecture Counterexamples are not Rare
The (now falsified) Jacobian conjecture was a well known conjecture expressing the hope that a family of functions had nice properties. In July 2026 Levent Alpöge exhibited a simple counter-example that he said was found by Claude Fable 5. Fields medalist
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Is it the box or the "yes" that does not fit?
There is a famous puzzle where a boy takes a 5 foot fishing rod on a bus that doesn't allow objects taller than 4 feet on by packing it in a 3 by 3 by 3 box (which has a long diagonal over 5 feet). The idea being: such a box is no more than 3 feet tall in
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